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North of Toronto, South of a championship

Posts Tagged ‘Denver Nuggets

2013 NBA Playoff Picks, Round One

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Every year I like to make wild and baseless predictions on the NBA playoffs. Usually they’re on Twitter or something, but I wanted to write a few words on each series this time.

Eastern Conference

1. Heat vs 8. Bucks

Probably not a series that’ll last more than five games. It’s cool how the Bucks snuck into the playoffs while being six games under .500 while out west, while two .500 teams were left out of the playoffs. I expect this one to be over in a hurry. Heat in four.

2. Knicks vs. 7. Celtics

Is Boston/New York a NBA rivalry? I don’t think so, but ESPN and some other places are really hammering at it so who knows, maybe a bunch of people will whip themselves into a petulant frenzy over this series. Again, this is another one that could be over quick: Boston is an aging team that’ll rely a lot on Kevin Garnett and they’re missing Rondo, easily their best player. But New York is also banged up (they’ve got five probables for game one), missing Amare Stoudemire and will be relying hard on Carmelo Anthony. If Boston can keep him under control (and I can see that happening), Boston might be able to squeak this out. Still, I think this is the Knicks series to lose. Knicks in six.

3. Pacers vs 6. Hawks

The Pacers are a tough, defensively minded team that plays an agressive, physical style of basketball. They had the closest thing to a full-on brawl I saw this season and don’t look now, but Roy Hibbert is quickly becoming one of the better young centers in the NBA. And Paul George is a beast, too. Meanwhile, I’m not big on Atlanta: Josh Smith is a gunner (last year in the playoffs he was taking something like 18 shots a game) and Al Horford is another good young center (I’m looking forward to seeing him and Hibbert go at each other, actually) but I like the Pacers a lot in this series. My gut tells me it’ll be ugly, but compelling. Pacers in five.

4. Nets vs 5. Bulls

Two fun-to-watch teams who match up well. First, their SRS are right around each other and second, their defences/offensive ratings make for an interesting match: Chicago’s offence is 23rd in the league, Brooklyn’s defence is 17th; Brooklyn’s offence is eighth, Chicago’s defence is sixth. I do think Chicago has it’s flaws (they’re missing Derrick Rose for sure and maybe Joakim Noah) but they have bright spots, like Carlos Boozer (who I wrote about in January) and Jimmy Butler. The Nets, meanwhile, are great inside (Brook Lopez) and out (Deron Williams) and might make quick work of Chicago. On paper, this could be a close series but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nets tore things up early and often. Nets in five.

Western Conference

1.Thunder vs 8. Rockets

Are the Thunder the best team in the NBA? Well, no, that’s Miami, but they’re a close second. In most years, Kevin Durant’s 28 points, eight rebounds and five assists per game (not to mention nearly 19 Win Shares) would be enough for serious MVP consideration. It’s only because Miami has been so damn good that he isn’t. I do like some of the subplots to this series – James Harden takes on his old team, will Jeremy Lin explode in the postseason, etc – but let’s be real here: the question is only how many games it’ll take the Thunder to win four and they’ll do it quickly. Thunder in five.

2.Spurs vs 7. Lakers

One the fun end-of-year stories was seeing the Lakers go on a late tear and make the playoffs. It’s too bad it was derailed when Kobe Bryant went down last weekend. True, they still have Steve Nash and Dwight Howard. But San Antonio has Tony Parker, Tiago Splitter and Tim Duncan. Without Bryant, this one will be over in a hurry. Spurs in four.

3.Nuggets vs 6. Warriors

This’ll probably be the most fun series of the first round: the Nuggets are a blast to watch, score like it’s nobody’s business and have one of the most enjoyable players in the NBA, JaVale McGee. Golden State scores a bunch, too (seventh in the NBA for points-per-game) and Stephen Curry is jacking up 18 shots per game (I expect this will only go up, too). This series will be worth staying up late for and I expect at least one wild shootout. But who will win? I’m going with what I want to see and that’s more McGee. Nuggets in seven.

4.Clippers vs. 5. Memphis

Remember when the Clippers were lob city and everyone loved to watch their sweet jams? And then Blake Griffin started becoming a little unbearable and the team started flopping often and everyone I know turned on them. They’re still a good team on both ends of the floor and Chris Paul is a dark horse for the MVP (one could make a case for him over Durant) but they’re awfully hard to cheer for. Memphis, though, is a legitimately fun team: Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are fun to watch and Ed Davis was my favorite Raptor (and I hope he tears shit up in the postseason). And for what it’s worth, they have the best defensive numbers in the NBA. I think they have a great shot at this one: if they can contain Paul, the Clippers are a lot less dangerous. Grizzlies in six.

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Lakers share the wealth in game five win over Nuggets

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When Nene fouled out late in the fourth quarter of game five of the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday night, he lay on the court, shaking his head as if in disbelief.

He wasn’t alone, as the Nuggets let another one slip away, losing 103-94 to the Lakers, ceding them a 3-2 series lead.

The Nuggets had every reason to be confident they could steal a win in LA. They had survived a close call in game four, when the team nearly self-destructed in a succession of fouls, yet hung on to win. Carmelo Anthony looked good and shot good early on, while their bench had been outplaying the Lakers throughout the series.

Besides, they had won game two and nearly won game one, both played at the Staples Center.

But the Lakers were just as determined and met them head on; this game was a lot closer then it’s score shows.

It was a defencive kind of game, but not in the recent Knicks/Heat or Pistons/Spurs styles. Both sides were throwing themselves to the floor – Odon made a wild lunge at a loose ball in the fourth that’s completely illustrative of this. Both sides were making the other take it strong to the hoop – witness Chris Anderson, the Birdman, stuffing Odon early in the game, deadening his attempted dunk. Both sides were playing pressure-packed D – Carmelo wasn’t just double teamed, but had three defenders on him late in the fourth.

Bouncing back from a lackluster game four, Anthony had a good night – he shot 9-23 for 31 points and grabbed four boards in the process. From the charity stripe, he was nearly perfect, hitting 12 of 13.

He was alone in his play tonight.

Most of the Nuggets finished the game in the negative, with only Nene and Dahntay Jones having a +/- in the positive. JR Smith cooled off considerably from his game four hot streak, hitting only 3 of 13 shots (including 9 missed threes). Chauncy Billups took only seven shots, six of them threes, and hit four for 12 points – tying him with Kenyon Martin for second highest scorer on the Nuggets.

It was indicative of Denver’s shot selection, which faltered and withered late in the game. Too many quick, ill-advised long shots, plays that either took too long to develop or didn’t at all… it felt at times like if they were going to pull off the win, it was in spite of how their shots weren’t dropping.

A neat stat from the fourth: at one point, the Nuggets had a streak where they hit only three of 21 shots.

The Lakers, on the other hand, played like Denver had on Monday night. They spread the ball around, with five players scoring 12 or more points. Odom played his best game of the series and probably the playoffs, scoring 19 and grabbing 18 rebounds – and had four blocks, too.

Kobe Bryant had a similarly good game, scoring 22 on 6-of-13 shooting. He was a big reason why the Lakers were able to win: because he wasn’t forcing his shots and because he shared the load, getting eight assists. For the best example, look to one of them, from late in the fourth:

Kobe’s on the perimeter, looking for a long shot. He goes up, the Nuggets defence turns and pulls towards him… but it’s not a shot, it’s a quick pass to Odon, camped in the low post, who grabs the pass and stuffs it home. It’s either an expertly designed play, one the Nuggets completely fell for.

Or maybe it was a shot, or at least it was going to be until Kobe saw how the defence shifted, saw where Odon was and made a quick decision to go for the easy two rather then risk an iffy three.

Was it a one-off play? Or was that the turning point of this series, where Kobe realizes that no, he doesn’t have to do this alone.

One more fact: Carmelo outscored Kobe tonight, but for the first time it resulted in a loss.

Maybe this is less of a duel then a chess match after all.

Written by M.

May 28, 2009 at 4:53 am

Nuggets bend but don’t break in game four win

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If they say there are no easy baskets in the conference finals, they’re wrong.

Game four of the Western Finals seemed to be an exercise of foul shooting at times, in a game that was constantly stopped by the officals.

In the fourth quarter, the game got a little chippy and the refs started to crack down, calling fouls all over the place: to Denver and to LA… plus four technicals, with two called to the Nuggets without a second of gameplay in between.

Hence, LA got a few uncontested shots from the line.

Mind you, Denver got more then a handful too. Combined, both sides had 84 chances from the line… and with all those stoppages, it wasn’t just a blowout, it was kind of a stinker.

It wasn’t as bad as some games have been in these playoffs – game seven between the Celtics and Bulls, I’m looking at you – but it was hard to keep a flow going with this many trips to the line. Yes, play was choppy, but this is the playoffs. Things are supposed to be tough here, aren’t they?

It’s a shame that’s the lasting impression from game four, too, because it was an important win for a few reasons:
– An injured Carmelo scored 15 points, even though he was hobbling around on the floor early on.
– The Nuggets bench contributed 42 points, led by JR Smith who had a great shooting night and hit some late three’s that broke the Lakers’ back.
– Chris Anderson gave a great Dennis Rodman impression, grabbing boards like a vacuum and even shot a wildly amusing – and off mark – three. In all, he had 14 in just 24 minutes.

But there was one more thing that’s extremely telling about this win: the Nuggets composure.

When the refs cracked down late, the Nuggets started to break. They were fouling and looking lost. Carmelo picked up a technical for a stupid shove, and while Kobe shot the corresponding free throw, Kenyon Martin picked up another technical foul for the Nuggets. As a team, they were close to complete self-destruction, the kind where they lose their composure, miss shots and blow a big lead.

You know, the kind of self-destruction that the Kings and Blazers have had against the Lakers in conference finals of years past.

After the refs got everything sorted out, Bryant hit his foul shots and cut the lead to 10.

That was as close as he’d get. The Nuggets didn’t fall apart, but rallied and had a strong finish to the game. Martin hit the bench and the team settled down. When JR Smith hit two consecutive threes and made the score 113-96, the Lakers were finally out of contention.

So, it’s an important win for the Nuggets. They showed that while they have the self-destruction potential, they also can keep their head (and their lead) when it matters.

Besides that, it means the Lakers don’t have a stranglehold 3-1 lead on the series and the Nuggets gave themselves a little bit of breathing room. They showed that even without Carmelo at his best, they can still win: Billips and JR Smith both had great scoring nights (24 each), while Martin, Nene and Anderson each grabbed double-digit rebounds. They showed how deep they are, especially compared to the Lakers: 42 bench points to LA’s 24. That’s important – in a long series, that depth can pay some serious dividends.

But as the series moves to game five, the Nuggets have to be at least a little worried: if this could happen in game four, what’s to say it can’t happen again? And what happens with a hostile crowd? What if Smith misses those shots? Do they still hang on?

Still, it was a good win for the Nuggets. One that raises some questions, yes, but compared to the ones that a loss would have raised, I’m sure they’ll take them.

Written by M.

May 26, 2009 at 5:03 am

As Melo goes, so go the Nuggets

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Funny how things seem to repeat themselves isn’t it?

Another boneheaded inbounds pass; another quick move by Trevor Ariza… another win for the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference finals.

It was a fitting end to another late game collapse by the Nuggets and another late game vanishing act by Carmelo Anthony.

As this series shifted back to Denver for game three, things felt odd; there was a weird vibe to the match: Three’s launched all over the over the place, bodies being pushed around, crazy shots that had no business hitting – Smith’s long-bomb three at the end of the third quarter or Billups’ four-point play – were dropping.

Though the Lakers leads were far and few between – they didn’t lead in the second or third quarters – the fourth was again, again a roller coaster – not a steel one with loops and drops and sharp twists, but more like a wooden one where the cart whistles around the track, almost seeming at the edge of oblivion.

The Nuggets held a sizeable lead for most of the game and kept the Lakers at bay. But they also picked up fouls, kept running into walls and had possessions that never seemed to go anywhere.

It’s why the Lakers never went away. About midway through the fourth, the Lakers roared back and took an 81-80 lead on a long three by Ariza. They kept the pressure on the Nuggets, who couldn’t pull away, but stalled offensively; they had four turnovers at one point, capped when Nene (saddled with five fouls) stepped in front of Vujacic.

So, fairly predictably, it was Kobe who carried the Lakers offence. He hit some nice jumpers, including a three to give them a one-point lead with just over a minute left, and made clutch free throws.

On the other side of the ball, Carmelo Anthony was quiet and in foul trouble, leaving the game with just 11 points on 4 of 13 shooting. As the game drew to a close, it meant JR Smith or Billups had taken most of the big shots for Denver, not him. After the game, ABC’s cameras caught him walking to the locker room with a frustrated air about him.

As Carmelo goes, so go the Nuggets.

He’s the catalyst to their success. In game one he vanished down the stretch. In game two, he outscored Kobe with 34 points. On Saturday, he disappeared again, scoring only three points in the second half.

His play has been a big part of why this series has been so uneven, with neither team really establishing anything. The Lakers lead 2-1, yes, but this was the only game where they outplayed the Nuggets. And even here, they had some breaks – Kobe was ice cold down the stretch from the charity stripe. Had he been anything less, this could have gone either way – it was that kind of night.

With game four coming up on Monday, nothing really seems certain. It’s been a flip-flop kind of series. Will we see the tight, tempered Nuggets of game two, led by a confident Melo? Or will we see Kobe driving the Lakers to a stranglehold 3-1 series lead? Who can tell?

Written by M.

May 24, 2009 at 4:47 am

It’s a Wild West Kind Of Duel Between Kobe and Carmelo

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Now this is playoff basketball.

The Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers are tangled up in a tightly-matched Western Conference finals, tied with one win apiece.

Game one, a 103-105 win for the Lakers, was a skirmish. Game two, a 106-103 win for the Nuggets, was a duel. Just two games in, this series feels like a battle.

I know sportswriters – especially lazy or untalented ones – always like to fall back on war metaphors, but that’s how I honestly viewed game one and two of this series.

It’s been back and fourth, back and fourth. Los Angeles, basically the twin peaks of Kobe and Gasol, has run head-on into Denver, a hard-nosed, scrappy team that contests every shot and has no problem, none whatsoever, about getting their clothes dirty.

Look at how they handled Trevor Arerza. He drives to the basket, he’s knocked on his ass by Kenyon Martin. They put the pressure on him and he cracked, turning the ball over late and took the air out of the Lakers sails.

Look at Carmelo Anthony. He’s burst out his shell – I already look at him differently. He’s not the guy who won a NCAA title and underperformed; he’s the first player to really take Kobe to task in a while. He had 39 in game one, 34 in game two.

Look at Derek Fisher. Game one, he hits some huge shots. Game two, his game-tying shot sails wide. No way we’ve heard the last of him yet.

Look at a graph of the score. Neither side has managed to take much of a lead. Both games have been close for basically 48 minutes. This is no cakewalk for the Lakers. They haven’t been tested like this, not by Houston and not by Utah.

I think both games have been great and maybe the best games in these 2009 playoffs. Not finishes, whole games. These are ones that’ll air on ESPN Classic or Hardcourt Classics. They were hard fought, close and really could have gone either way. It’s like an old Celtics/Pistons game.

Those games were classic too, but not for their beauty. Those were tough, closely fought matches. Quite like what’s happened at the Staples Centre.

Granted, it’s been trainwreck ugly at times. Bad possessions and missed calls have showed up in both games. Both games kind of came down to missed chances at the foul line. The Nuggets could have, should have won game one. They hit a few more from the charity strips, they successfully run that inbounds pass at the end… well, maybe they’re up in this series two-nothing heading back to Denver. It’s been that close.

But it’s been great at times too. Kobe and Carmelo are dueling each other on the court. Both are lighting it up, pushing each other to new heights. It almost feels like a wild-west showdown between two gunslingers.

I don’t know if I’ve seen Carmelo play this possessed. His play – both times nearly matching Kobe’s stat line – has been nothing short of stellar.

On the other side of the ball, I’ve seen Kobe play this possessed, but only rarely. He is not doin’ work, he is worked up. When ESPN’s cameras caught him grimacing late in game two, you could almost feel his frustration as the game slipped beyond his grasp.

He is doing all he can – see his late game heroics in this series – but one man cannot carry a team, despite his best efforts. He’s hitting late shots, he’s having great nights… but that’s not enough. He needs the rest of the Lakers – Gasol, Fisher, Odom, et al – to get over this hump.

But one player can lift his team and make them play better then they ever have before. Before these playoffs began, I was firmly convinced in two things. One, the Nuggets series against the Hornets would be great (it wasn’t) and that the Nuggets were going to explode and fall apart.

They haven’t, even with these two pressure-cooker games in Los Angeles. Billups has been great at the point, Nene’s defence has been top-notch and Kenyon Martin has been good on both sides of the court; in game two he both set a tone on defence and hit a clutch shot to put the Nuggets in front. Is Carmelo the catalyst of this change? Is it Billups? I can’t say I know.

But the seeds of their destruction are already sown. They’re shooting horribly from the foul line and they’re picking up ugly fouls. You can only bang around bodies for so long in this stage of the NBA before the refs put a stop to it. Before one of your players gets hurt. Before they start treating you in kind.

Still, playing on a foreign court, they’ve kept the Lakers in check two times. Like I said, this series could very easily have been two-love for the Nuggets as they moved to Denver.

You know what? If they keep this level of play up, it could very easily be a 3-1 lead by Tuesday morning.

Written by M.

May 22, 2009 at 5:08 am

I love being wrong – NBA Second Round picks

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Honestly, I found the first round of the NBA Playoffs kind of underwhelming. Perhaps it’s in context of an excellent series between the Bulls and the Celtics and one that I didn’t see – but looked good on SportsCentre – between Orlando and Philadelphia.

But really, sweeps aren’t all that fun to watch unless you’ve got a stake in the sweeping team. I enjoyed watching Cleveland take apart Detroit for this reason, but I was never surprised or felt tension from those games. It felt like I was watching ESPN Classic; I had a vague recollection of what’s going to happen and I watched to see how it happened but I always knew what was going to happen.

I knew that Cleveland was going to win that series and that it was never going to be in doubt. I knew the Lakers were going to win their series. Same for Dallas. I had a pretty good idea that Orlando was going to win, too.

But every year I “know” who’s going to win. And every year I’m wrong, which is what I love about the postseason. I love being surprised. And that didn’t happen this year.

Will it pick up in the second round? Perhaps. The east will be drained, as two teams went to seven games, while the west should be nice and rested: only Houston played a sixth game and all teams had a few days rest.

Western Picks

(1) Lakers vs (5) Houston

The Lakers have looked great so far and should keep it up. Like last year, they’re a multipointed team; stop Kobe and you’ve left Gasol and Oden open. And while the Rockets have finally broken the first-round barrier, I think it’ll stop here.

The Blazers were a good team, but they were young and inexperienced in the postseason – and they still gave the Rockets a run for their money. That says a lot about the Rockets to me, so I think the Lakers will be more then able to handle them.

Lakers in five.

(2) Denver vs (6) Dallas

I didn’t get much of a chance to watch either of these two series, but what little I saw of Denver showed me how physical that series against New Orleans was. It was brutal, with bodies flying all over the place. Sure, the Nuggets eventually exploded and won by 58 points, but I was surprised by how well they responded to that aggression.

Dallas, though, almost got a pass in the first round. They beat a crippled San Antonio, a team missing one of its three most important players and relied on Anthony Mason to make clutch shots. Let’s just say I don’t remember him making too many of those in Toronto.

So I’m wary on the Mavs. I feel they haven’t really been tested yet and I don’t know what they’re capable of. On paper I think they have the talent to beat Denver, but on the court I’m not so sure. I’m going to go out on a limb and take them to win in a longish series.

Mavs in six.

Eastern conference

(2) Boston vs (3) Orlando

Both of these teams barely escaped the first round. Boston narrowly made it past the Bulls in a great series that showed how much the C’s need Garnett on the court. Orlando, it seemed, actually was pretty good even without some of its starters – but a couple baskets go the other way and maybe Philly upsets them. It was that close.

While I feel like Boston will be drained from playing such a grueling series, I also think they’re a lot better then Orlando. The Magic have a great chance to steal a win or two early on, and if they do, they’ll have a great shot at winning a long series. But if they can’t, I think Boston will be able to prevail.

Boston in six.

(1) Cleveland at (??)

I’m writing this during the first half of game seven between Miami and Atlanta. I don’t know who’s going to win, but I think it’s pretty safe to say that whomever does is going to lose to Cleveland, maybe even in a sweep. The Cavs looked that good against Detroit.

Cleveland in four.

Written by M.

May 3, 2009 at 5:53 pm