North of the 400

North of Toronto, South of a championship

Is it worth getting Miami’s leftovers for Bosh?

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Here are two stat lines. Each represents a player at the same age – 20 years old. Player one is in his second NBA season, while player two is a rookie.

Games Started Minutes Played TS % eFG % TRB % Offensive Rating Defensive Rating USG % PER
81 3017 .547 .472 13.5 107 107 21.7 17.5
19 2009 .528 .490 13.1 103 108 27.7 17.2

There isn’t really much of a gap between the two, considering the experience difference. The difference between True Shooting and Effective Field Goals cancel each other out (in my opinion) and rebounding is essentially a tie. Player two is used more by his team, but player one is slightly better on both sides of the court – his team scores more and allows less per 100 possessions. Their PERs are essentially the same.

Here they are the next season, at 21 years old.

Games Started Minutes Played TS % eFG % TRB % Offensive Rating Defensive Rating USG % PER
70 2751 .585 .505 14.4 118 111 25.2 23.2
78 2328 .505 .463 12.6 101 103 25.8 16.1

The differences are now a little more stark – player two is regressing slightly, scoring less, being used less, rebounding less and both measures of his shooting have dropped. His PER has dropped, too.

But player one is the opposite. In less games, almost every measure has improved: he’s scoring more and more efficiently. He’s rebounding better and his team is using him more. His PER has jumped up too –  to 13th in the league for that season (higher then Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol and Ray Allen).

Player one is Chris Bosh, player two is Michael Beasley.

With Bosh’s signing with the Miami Heat, the question for the Toronto Raptors is no longer about what they can get for him, but if they can get anything at all. The Heat have enough room to sign Bosh outright and give Toronto nothing; but if they can work out a sign-and-trade and move some assets, they’d have a little more room to bring somebody else to the team, say LeBron James.

It’s pretty much the worst case scenario for Toronto. Their star player, the man they’ve tried to build around is not only walking away after his single best season on the team, but there’s a good chance they’ll end up with moths flying out of their collective pockets afterward.

Unless they can work out a deal with not only Bosh, but with the Heat.

That’s what makes this the worst case. The best thing that could happen to the team right now is getting back some of Miami’s leftovers, players who they can dump off on Toronto. They have not only a chance to bring in three great players, but to clean house at the same time.

Look at those numbers again. Are they close? Not really, no. If they were swapped when they were both 22, it would be clear that one team ‘won’ the trade – and that’s not even taking the off-court issues that Beasley has had into account.

The current trade rumor making the rounds is something like this: Bosh to Miami, Beasley and/or Mario Chalmers (and according to something I read on Twitter, up to two draft picks may come into play). It true, it’s not exactly fair value for Bosh.

While Beasley would probably enter the rotation right away – I’m guessing he’d split minutes with  Amir Johnson and Ed Davis somehow – Chalmers would be the fourth point guard under contract for the Raptors. Where would he fit? Probably behind Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack and ahead of one of Marcus Bank’s suits.

Unless the Raptors make another trade and try to move either Jack or Calderon, which I think is a very likely possibility. If anything, picking up another PG would almost force their hand to make a deal – and a serious possibility of them moving what is now their biggest asset.

Which is why I think it’s almost better to let Bosh walk away. Sure, the Raptors would get nothing back for losing their best player, but should the team want what they’d get back? Beasley is not a great investment and Chalmers wouldn’t fit on the team. Sure, the picks would be nice, but good luck getting Pat Riley to give those up.

So is it worth getting something back just because you can? It’s like instead of just returning a car after the lease runs out, I’d have the option to get a horse-drawn buggy back It’d nice to get something back, but I’d rather just walk instead.

If it comes down to having to take Miami’s leftovers or letting Bosh walk… well, I have no problem saying sayonara, abiento and, well, take your pick. The Chris Bosh era is over, might as well make a clean break.

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Written by M.

July 8, 2010 at 1:44 pm

One Response

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  1. […] Is it worth getting Miami’s leftovers for Bosh? « North of the 400 – Unless the Raptors make another trade and try to move either Jack or Calderon, which I think is a very likely possibility. If anything, picking up another PG would almost force their hand to make a deal – and a serious possibility of them moving what is now their biggest asset. […]


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